![]() ![]() The combination of these factors leads to increasing confidence in a volatile pattern by mid to late winter with the possibility of high-latitude blocking episodes. Meanwhile, widespread warmer than normal sea surface temperatures exist in the North Pacific as well as the North Atlantic and Arctic. Thereafter, weakening effects of the La Nina are gradually anticipated as we move through the winter months. The ongoing La Nina event is expected to continue to remain in control through the first few months of the winter. SSTA Analysis (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) La Nina conditions are observed when colder than normal temperature anomalies exist in the aforementioned tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean. In a general sense, the more anomalous the positive sea surface temperatures, the more convection that can then exert a stronger forcing mechanism on the adjacent regions of the atmosphere, reverberating throughout the globe.Īlmost all forecast model guidance now agrees that we will experience weak La Nina conditions during the upcoming winter, but see weakening impacts from the La Niña overall as the winter goes on. The equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean that comprise the ENSO regions breed a great deal of thunderstorm activity, which then accordingly results in atmospheric ridging and subsequently moves downstream. This convection, most frequently observed in warm and moist climates, releases latent heat that then rises up into the atmosphere, forming ridges of higher atmospheric air pressure. Tropical forcing more specifically refers to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise referred to as convection, in meteorological regions of the tropics. ![]() ENSO conditions are one of they key drivers to the Winter pattern, and can often be broadly referenced as “tropical forcing”. ![]() The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The role of ENSOĪnticipated ENSO Conditions: Weakening La Niña Stick with it – we’ll do our best to explain what everything means and we have several videos coming in the next few days to break it all down, too. This forecast will be a bit more complex than our usual posts. This will lead us to conclusions which we believe will be the guiding forces for us during the seasons ahead. Within this forecast, we are going to try to paint a picture of the atmosphere and what it’ll be doing over the next few months based on several global and hemispheric oscillations, conditions, and phenomena. We have been piecing together ideas for this upcoming winter since then, and we are excited to finally have a finished product to share with you. It is the product of several months of intensive research, which often begins in the prior Spring. We say it every year, but it is worth repeating: Seasonal weather forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of meteorology. NYC’s 30 year average annual snowfall is 28.9″, and we expect slightly above normal snowfall this season.Ĭlick here to jump directly to the forecast maps. The second half of the winter will trend more volatile and could end warmer than normal in February. Highlights: The Winter of 2022-2023 is likely to begin with a somewhat cool, wintry pattern during the months of December and January. ![]()
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